| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Sep 2September 2 | at Boise State (11-3, 8-1) | L 13-24 | 3.41 | 4.70 | -1.28 | 20.19%
| -1 |
| Sep 9September 9 | vs Alabama State (5-6, 4-3) | W 34-7 | 7.83 | 2.75 | +5.08 | 100.00%
| -1 |
| Sep 16September 16 | at New Mexico State (7-6, 4-4) | W 27-24 | 6.10 | 6.16 | -0.06 | 48.49%
| 0 |
| Sep 23September 23 | vs Akron (7-7, 6-3) | W 22-17 | 6.94 | 4.89 | +2.05 | 91.28%
| +2 |
| Sep 30September 30 | at #25 LSU (9-4, 6-2) | W 24-21 | 5.19 | 7.02 | -1.83 | 11.36%
| +2 |
| Oct 11October 11 (Wed) | vs South Alabama (4-8, 3-5) | L 8-19 | 4.46 | 3.50 | +0.96 | 73.23%
| -3 |
| Oct 21October 21 | at Georgia State (7-5, 5-3) | W 34-10 | 7.88 | 4.21 | +3.67 | 97.41%
| -1 |
| Oct 28October 28 | vs Georgia Southern (2-10, 2-6) | W 38-16 | 7.66 | 4.18 | +3.48 | 97.31%
| +1 |
| Nov 2November 2 (Thu) | vs Idaho (4-8, 3-5) | W 24-21 | 5.90 | 5.64 | +0.25 | 56.41%
| -2 |
| Nov 11November 11 | at Coastal Carolina (3-9, 2-6) | W 42-17 | 5.52 | 3.97 | +1.55 | 84.51%
| +1 |
| Nov 24November 24 (Fri) | vs Texas State (2-10, 1-7) | W 62-9 | 9.71 | 4.55 | +5.17 | 100.00%
| +4 |
| Dec 2December 2 | at Arkansas State (7-5, 6-2) | W 32-25 | 4.44 | 6.45 | -2.01 | 9.19%
| +2 |
| Dec 16December 16 | at North Texas (9-5, 7-2) * | W 50-30 | 6.30 | 3.73 | +2.57 | 95.44%
| +3 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 11-2, 7-1 | 6.24 | 4.78 | +1.464 | 8.85-4.15 (+2.15) | +7 |