| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Aug 31August 31 (Thu) | vs Sacramento State (7-4, 6-3) | W 28-6 | 5.71 | 3.17 | +2.55 | 95.31%
| -3 |
| Sep 9September 9 | vs UNLV (5-7, 4-4) | L 16-44 | 5.49 | 8.33 | -2.85 | 3.45%
| 0 |
| Sep 16September 16 | at Western Michigan (6-6, 4-4) | L 28-37 | 6.65 | 4.75 | +1.90 | 89.48%
| -2 |
| Sep 23September 23 | at South Alabama (4-8, 3-5) | W 29-23 | 5.51 | 4.73 | +0.78 | 69.23%
| -1 |
| Oct 7October 7 | vs Louisiana (5-7, 4-4) | L 16-21 | 4.16 | 4.43 | -0.27 | 43.18%
| +1 |
| Oct 14October 14 | vs Appalachian State (9-4, 7-1) | L 20-23 | 4.88 | 4.31 | +0.56 | 64.03%
| 0 |
| Oct 21October 21 | at Missouri (7-6, 4-4) | L 21-68 | 3.76 | 10.28 | -6.52 | 0.00%
| 0 |
| Oct 28October 28 | vs Louisiana Monroe (4-8, 4-4) | W 31-23 | 6.40 | 7.62 | -1.23 | 21.31%
| +2 |
| Nov 2November 2 (Thu) | at Troy (11-2, 7-1) | L 21-24 | 5.64 | 5.90 | -0.25 | 43.55%
| +2 |
| Nov 18November 18 | vs Coastal Carolina (3-9, 2-6) | L 7-13 | 4.70 | 4.30 | +0.40 | 60.01%
| 0 |
| Nov 25November 25 | at New Mexico State (7-6, 4-4) | L 10-17 | 2.95 | 4.69 | -1.74 | 12.59%
| -1 |
| Dec 2December 2 | at Georgia State (7-5, 5-3) | W 24-10 | 5.36 | 5.12 | +0.24 | 56.01%
| +4 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 4-8, 3-5 | 5.09 | 5.60 | -0.508 | 5.58-6.42 (-1.58) | +2 |