| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Sep 1September 1 | at Memphis (4-8, 4-4) | W 20-17 | 5.09 | 4.99 | +0.10 | 52.64%
| 0 |
| Sep 8September 8 | at Northern Illinois (12-2, 9-0) | L 7-35 | 5.01 | 5.69 | -0.68 | 33.16%
| -1 |
| Sep 13September 13 (Thu) | vs Southeastern Louisiana (5-6, 5-2) | W 23-6 | 4.35 | 5.04 | -0.70 | 32.74%
| +1 |
| Sep 22September 22 | at Austin Peay (2-9, 1-7) | W 31-6 | 6.51 | 3.97 | +2.54 | 95.26%
| 0 |
| Sep 29September 29 | vs #19 Eastern Kentucky (8-3, 6-2) | L 16-28 | 3.96 | 4.88 | -0.92 | 27.59%
| -1 |
| Oct 6October 6 | vs Eastern Illinois (7-5, 6-1) | W 51-37 | 5.60 | 5.98 | -0.38 | 40.46%
| +5 |
| Oct 13October 13 | at Murray State (5-6, 4-4) | W 66-59 | 8.66 | 7.18 | +1.48 | 83.30%
| +2 |
| Oct 20October 20 | at Southeast Missouri State (3-8, 2-6) | W 27-17 | 5.71 | 5.38 | +0.34 | 58.51%
| +3 |
| Nov 3November 3 | vs Jacksonville State (6-5, 5-3) | W 49-47 | 7.02 | 6.69 | +0.33 | 58.44%
| 0 |
| Nov 10November 10 | at Tennessee Tech (3-8, 1-7) | L 44-45 | 6.36 | 6.93 | -0.57 | 35.87%
| +1 |
| Nov 17November 17 | vs #23 Tennessee State (8-3, 4-3) | W 35-26 | 5.21 | 6.36 | -1.15 | 22.79%
| +3 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 8-3, 6-2 | 5.82 | 5.81 | +0.007 | 5.41-5.59 (+2.59) | +13 |