| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Sep 1September 1 | vs #22 Boise State (10-3, 7-2) | L 20-56 | 4.86 | 7.30 | -2.44 | 5.34%
| -3 |
| Sep 8September 8 | vs Florida A&M (6-5, 5-3) | W 59-7 | 6.04 | 4.56 | +1.48 | 83.34%
| +4 |
| Sep 15September 15 | at Nebraska (4-8, 3-6) | W 24-19 | 4.60 | 4.85 | -0.25 | 43.56%
| +1 |
| Sep 22September 22 | at Louisiana Monroe (6-6, 4-4) | W 35-27 | 7.00 | 5.83 | +1.17 | 77.49%
| +1 |
| Sep 29September 29 | vs Coastal Carolina (5-7, 2-6) | W 45-21 | 9.34 | 4.17 | +5.17 | 100.00%
| 0 |
| Oct 4October 4 (Thu) | vs Georgia State (2-10, 1-7) | W 37-20 | 8.94 | 5.45 | +3.48 | 97.31%
| +1 |
| Oct 13October 13 | at Liberty (6-6) | L 16-22 | 4.25 | 4.43 | -0.18 | 45.36%
| -2 |
| Oct 23October 23 (Tue) | at South Alabama (3-9, 2-6) | W 38-17 | 8.04 | 5.13 | +2.91 | 96.71%
| +1 |
| Nov 3November 3 | vs Louisiana (7-7, 5-4) | W 26-16 | 6.89 | 4.15 | +2.73 | 96.18%
| +2 |
| Nov 10November 10 | at Georgia Southern (10-3, 6-2) | W 35-21 | 6.31 | 5.11 | +1.20 | 78.15%
| -1 |
| Nov 17November 17 | vs Texas State (3-9, 1-7) | W 12-7 | 2.97 | 4.81 | -1.84 | 11.23%
| +6 |
| Nov 24November 24 | at Appalachian State (11-2, 8-1) | L 10-21 | 3.74 | 4.55 | -0.81 | 30.16%
| -3 |
| Dec 22December 22 | vs Buffalo (10-4, 7-2) * | W 42-32 | 5.77 | 5.53 | +0.24 | 56.16%
| +3 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 10-3, 7-1 | 5.92 | 5.05 | +0.874 | 8.21-4.79 (+1.79) | +10 |