| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Sep 3September 3 (Thu) | vs Eastern Illinois (7-5, 7-1) | W 33-5 | 3.37 | 3.58 | -0.21 | 44.55%
| +2 |
| Sep 12September 12 | at Illinois (5-7, 2-6) | L 0-44 | 2.61 | 5.32 | -2.71 | 3.93%
| +2 |
| Sep 19September 19 | at #1 Coastal Carolina (9-3, 4-2) | L 27-34 | 6.28 | 5.82 | +0.46 | 61.52%
| +1 |
| Oct 3October 3 | vs Southern Illinois (3-8, 2-6) | W 37-36 | 7.54 | 5.25 | +2.30 | 93.60%
| -1 |
| Oct 10October 10 | vs South Dakota (5-6, 3-5) | W 40-21 | 7.14 | 4.79 | +2.35 | 94.01%
| 0 |
| Oct 17October 17 | at #14 Northern Iowa (9-5, 5-4) | W 24-19 | 4.83 | 3.84 | +0.99 | 73.84%
| 0 |
| Oct 24October 24 | at #4 Illinois State (10-3, 8-1) | L 28-48 | 4.93 | 8.91 | -3.98 | 2.05%
| +1 |
| Oct 31October 31 | vs #24 Youngstown State (5-6, 3-5) | L 21-23 | 3.82 | 4.81 | -0.99 | 26.21%
| +1 |
| Nov 7November 7 | at #5 North Dakota State (13-2, 8-1) | L 7-59 | 4.36 | 6.44 | -2.08 | 8.43%
| -2 |
| Nov 14November 14 | at Indiana State (5-6, 3-5) | W 37-30 | 6.24 | 5.27 | +0.97 | 73.44%
| -1 |
| Nov 21November 21 | vs #5 South Dakota State (8-4, 5-3) | W 30-24 | 5.67 | 5.79 | -0.12 | 46.89%
| +2 |
| Nov 28November 28 | at Dayton (10-2, 7-1) | W 24-7 | 4.87 | 3.22 | +1.65 | 86.12%
| +2 |
| Dec 5December 5 | at Illinois State (10-3, 8-1) | L 19-36 | 5.36 | 6.51 | -1.16 | 22.71%
| +1 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 7-6, 5-4 | 5.24 | 5.31 | -0.068 | 6.37-6.63 (+0.63) | +8 |