| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Sep 19September 19 | at Middle Tennessee (3-6, 2-3) | W 47-14 | 5.33 | 3.89 | +1.45 | 82.72%
| +1 |
| Sep 26September 26 | at #18 BYU (11-1) | L 7-48 | 3.35 | 8.10 | -4.75 | 0.00%
| +1 |
| Oct 10October 10 | vs Texas State (2-10, 2-6) | W 37-17 | 6.03 | 3.79 | +2.23 | 93.08%
| +1 |
| Oct 17October 17 | vs Eastern Kentucky (3-6) | W 31-29 | 7.04 | 5.45 | +1.59 | 85.16%
| -2 |
| Oct 24October 24 | vs Georgia State (6-4, 4-4) | L 34-36 | 6.67 | 4.41 | +2.26 | 93.34%
| -1 |
| Oct 31October 31 | at Arkansas State (4-7, 2-6) | W 38-10 | 6.01 | 4.99 | +1.03 | 74.58%
| +1 |
| Nov 7November 7 | at Georgia Southern (8-5, 4-4) | L 13-20 | 3.85 | 5.55 | -1.70 | 13.16%
| -1 |
| Nov 21November 21 | vs Middle Tennessee (3-6, 2-3) | L 17-20 | 6.32 | 5.35 | +0.97 | 73.41%
| -2 |
| Nov 28November 28 | at Appalachian State (9-3, 6-2) | L 10-47 | 4.20 | 8.15 | -3.95 | 2.15%
| -1 |
| Dec 5December 5 | at South Alabama (4-7, 3-5) | W 29-0 | 5.38 | 3.57 | +1.81 | 88.34%
| +1 |
| Dec 12December 12 | vs #13 Coastal Carolina (11-1, 8-0) | L 38-42 | 5.47 | 7.14 | -1.67 | 13.63%
| -2 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 5-6, 3-4 | 5.51 | 5.53 | -0.018 | 6.20-4.80 (-1.20) | -4 |