| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Sep 2September 2 | vs #24 Texas Tech (7-6, 5-4) | W 35-33 | 4.10 | 5.39 | -1.28 | 20.18%
| -1 |
| Sep 9September 9 | vs Portland State (5-6, 4-4) | W 31-17 | 6.75 | 4.35 | +2.39 | 94.33%
| 0 |
| Sep 16September 16 | at #4 Texas (12-2, 9-1) | L 10-31 | 4.41 | 6.08 | -1.67 | 13.66%
| 0 |
| Sep 23September 23 | vs Appalachian State (9-5, 6-3) | W 22-19 | 4.95 | 4.63 | +0.32 | 58.05%
| +1 |
| Sep 30September 30 | vs New Mexico (4-8, 2-6) | W 35-26 | 7.73 | 6.22 | +1.51 | 83.78%
| +2 |
| Oct 7October 7 | vs #24 Fresno State (9-4, 4-4) | W 24-19 | 5.22 | 4.91 | +0.31 | 57.90%
| +1 |
| Oct 14October 14 | at Air Force (9-4, 5-3) | L 27-34 | 5.35 | 6.68 | -1.33 | 19.39%
| +2 |
| Oct 28October 28 | at Boise State (8-6, 7-2) | L 7-32 | 2.49 | 6.24 | -3.75 | 2.52%
| +1 |
| Nov 3November 3 (Fri) | vs Colorado State (5-7, 3-5) | W 24-15 | 4.99 | 4.35 | +0.64 | 65.79%
| +2 |
| Nov 10November 10 (Fri) | at UNLV (9-5, 6-3) | L 14-34 | 4.87 | 5.67 | -0.80 | 30.30%
| -1 |
| Nov 18November 18 | vs Hawai'i (5-8, 3-5) | W 42-9 | 10.16 | 4.16 | +6.00 | 100.00%
| +1 |
| Nov 25November 25 | at Nevada (2-10, 2-6) | W 42-6 | 6.71 | 3.66 | +3.05 | 97.00%
| +2 |
| Dec 30December 30 | vs Toledo (11-3, 8-1) * | W 16-15 | 5.21 | 6.19 | -0.98 | 26.30%
| +1 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 9-4, 5-3 | 5.52 | 5.23 | +0.293 | 6.69-6.31 (+2.31) | +11 |