| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Aug 30August 30 | vs Southern (9-4, 8-2) | W 45-6 | 6.65 | 3.88 | +2.77 | 96.33%
| -2 |
| Sep 6September 6 | vs Louisiana Tech (9-5, 7-2) | L 20-48 | 5.32 | 7.84 | -2.52 | 4.86%
| -3 |
| Sep 13September 13 | at #14 Ole Miss (9-4, 5-3) | L 15-56 | 4.74 | 7.80 | -3.07 | 2.98%
| -3 |
| Sep 20September 20 | at Boise State (12-2, 8-1) | L 9-34 | 3.89 | 6.32 | -2.43 | 5.41%
| -1 |
| Oct 4October 4 | vs Georgia State (1-11, 0-8) | W 34-31 | 7.32 | 6.25 | +1.07 | 75.46%
| 0 |
| Oct 14October 14 (Tue) | at Texas State (7-5, 5-3) | W 34-10 | 6.37 | 4.66 | +1.72 | 87.02%
| +1 |
| Oct 21October 21 (Tue) | vs Arkansas State (7-6, 5-3) | W 55-40 | 7.14 | 7.83 | -0.69 | 32.85%
| +1 |
| Nov 1November 1 | vs South Alabama (6-7, 5-3) | W 19-9 | 6.22 | 4.80 | +1.42 | 82.33%
| 0 |
| Nov 8November 8 | at New Mexico State (2-10, 1-7) | W 44-16 | 5.22 | 4.58 | +0.64 | 65.85%
| +4 |
| Nov 15November 15 | at Louisiana Monroe (4-8, 3-5) | W 34-27 | 7.48 | 5.77 | +1.71 | 86.93%
| +2 |
| Nov 22November 22 | vs Appalachian State (7-5, 6-2) | L 16-35 | 3.75 | 6.19 | -2.43 | 5.37%
| +2 |
| Nov 29November 29 | at Troy (3-9, 3-5) | W 42-23 | 7.15 | 5.97 | +1.18 | 77.70%
| +2 |
| Dec 20December 20 | vs Nevada (7-6, 4-4) * | W 16-3 | 5.55 | 3.74 | +1.82 | 88.45%
| 0 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 9-4, 7-1 | 5.90 | 5.88 | +0.028 | 7.12-5.88 (+1.88) | +3 |