| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Sep 3September 3 | vs #16 Southeastern Louisiana (9-4, 3-1) | W 24-7 | 5.42 | 4.19 | +1.23 | 78.67%
| +2 |
| Sep 10September 10 | vs Eastern Michigan (9-4, 5-3) | W 49-21 | 6.58 | 4.88 | +1.70 | 86.79%
| +5 |
| Sep 17September 17 | at Rice (5-8, 3-5) | L 21-33 | 4.07 | 5.61 | -1.54 | 15.63%
| +2 |
| Sep 24September 24 | at Louisiana Monroe (4-8, 3-5) | L 17-21 | 4.48 | 6.45 | -1.97 | 9.67%
| 0 |
| Oct 1October 1 | vs South Alabama (10-3, 7-1) | L 17-20 | 4.18 | 4.63 | -0.45 | 38.76%
| -1 |
| Oct 12October 12 (Wed) | at Marshall (9-4, 5-3) | W 23-13 | 5.37 | 4.18 | +1.18 | 77.82%
| +2 |
| Oct 22October 22 | vs Arkansas State (3-9, 1-7) | W 38-18 | 6.00 | 5.11 | +0.89 | 71.56%
| -1 |
| Oct 27October 27 (Thu) | at Southern Mississippi (7-6, 4-4) | L 24-39 | 5.78 | 5.14 | +0.64 | 65.88%
| -2 |
| Nov 5November 5 | vs Troy (12-2, 8-1) | L 17-23 | 4.32 | 5.31 | -0.99 | 26.05%
| +1 |
| Nov 10November 10 (Thu) | vs Georgia Southern (6-7, 3-5) | W 36-17 | 6.13 | 5.51 | +0.61 | 65.27%
| 0 |
| Nov 19November 19 | at #19 Florida State (10-3, 5-3) | L 17-49 | 4.10 | 6.67 | -2.57 | 4.58%
| -1 |
| Nov 26November 26 | at Texas State (4-8, 2-6) | W 41-13 | 6.41 | 5.56 | +0.85 | 70.73%
| +1 |
| Dec 23December 23 (Fri) | at Houston (8-5, 5-3) * | L 16-23 | 5.19 | 5.59 | -0.39 | 40.05%
| -2 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 6-7, 4-4 | 5.27 | 5.29 | -0.021 | 6.51-6.49 (-0.51) | +6 |