| Date | Opponent | Result | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | YPP Win Prob | TO Margin |
|---|
| Sep 3September 3 | at #21 Ole Miss (8-5, 4-4) | L 10-28 | 4.27 | 5.93 | -1.66 | 13.78%
| +1 |
| Sep 10September 10 | vs Alabama A&M (4-7, 4-4) | W 38-17 | 7.46 | 4.34 | +3.12 | 97.09%
| -1 |
| Sep 17September 17 | at Appalachian State (6-6, 3-5) | L 28-32 | 5.27 | 6.61 | -1.34 | 19.23%
| -1 |
| Sep 24September 24 | vs Marshall (9-4, 5-3) | W 16-7 | 7.52 | 2.52 | +5.00 | 100.00%
| -2 |
| Oct 1October 1 | at Western Kentucky (9-5, 6-2) | W 34-27 | 5.46 | 5.53 | -0.07 | 48.23%
| +1 |
| Oct 8October 8 | vs Southern Mississippi (7-6, 4-4) | W 27-10 | 5.83 | 3.36 | +2.47 | 94.84%
| +2 |
| Oct 15October 15 | vs Texas State (4-8, 2-6) | W 17-14 | 6.55 | 4.88 | +1.67 | 86.28%
| -1 |
| Oct 20October 20 (Thu) | at South Alabama (10-3, 7-1) | W 10-6 | 4.43 | 4.11 | +0.32 | 58.08%
| 0 |
| Nov 5November 5 | at Louisiana (6-7, 4-4) | W 23-17 | 5.31 | 4.32 | +0.99 | 73.92%
| -1 |
| Nov 12November 12 | vs Army (6-6, 1-0) | W 10-9 | 4.98 | 5.03 | -0.05 | 48.78%
| 0 |
| Nov 19November 19 | vs Louisiana Monroe (4-8, 3-5) | W 34-16 | 5.70 | 3.68 | +2.02 | 90.97%
| +1 |
| Nov 26November 26 | at Arkansas State (3-9, 1-7) | W 48-19 | 6.24 | 4.18 | +2.07 | 91.44%
| 0 |
| Dec 3December 3 | vs Coastal Carolina (9-4, 6-3) | W 45-26 | 7.77 | 6.00 | +1.77 | 87.85%
| +2 |
| Dec 16December 16 (Fri) | vs UT San Antonio (11-3, 9-0) * | W 18-12 | 2.32 | 4.66 | -2.34 | 6.02%
| +3 |
| | Final Record | YPP Gained | YPP Allowed | YPP Diff | Expected Record | TO Margin |
|---|
| | 12-2, 8-1 | 5.59 | 4.70 | +0.897 | 9.17-4.83 (+2.83) | +4 |